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WSJ’s Insight on Iowa Caucus Dem’s Presidential Primary and Ethanol

Let the presidential bidding on ethanol begin. As luck would have it, the incoming Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman is the old Iowa warhorse Tom Harkin, who in his first week has introduced legislation for a huge new ethanol mandate. Under Mr. Harkin’s dream plan, drivers would have to pay for 60 billion gallons worth of ethanol and biodiesel annually by 2030 (compared to today’s output of five billion gallons). His plan also includes mandates on automakers and oil companies for more cars and pumps devoted to ethanol use. Mr. Harkin’s big-bucks proposal is clearly designed to set a floor in the upcoming presidential ethanol sweepstakes. He naturally expects the price to soar even higher into the stratosphere by the time the Iowa caucuses have arrived. Two of his four co-sponsors on the legislation are Democratic presidential hopefuls: Barack Obama (not yet formally announced) and Joe Biden. Another Democratic aspirant is Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, who could give even Mr. Harkin a run when it comes to a history of showing ethanol love. But most fun to watch this year will be Hillary Clinton, who previously voted against a bigger ethanol mandate because of the high costs for New Yorkers. How she modifies her position in time for Iowa will be an early test of her ability maneuver adroitly. Mr. Harkin can also expect a boost from President Bush’s State of the Union address, which is rumored to contain a big plug for “renewable” energy. And Republican presidential hopefuls are starting to fall in line too. Rudy Giuliani, who also hails from New York, nonetheless made his first big “presidential” speech last June about the urgent need for more ethanol. Not yet clear is where Mitt Romney will come down — he hasn’t said much about ethanol. And Senator John McCain previously criticized ethanol subsidies — leaving open the possibility that perhaps one or two candidates might resist the ethanol siren song. Don’t count on it, however. The most recent congressional ethanol mandate, passed in 2005, was a sizeable contributor in last year’s gasoline price spike as refiners were forced to bid up the price of then-scarce ethanol to meet the mandate. Contrary to spin, ethanol also won’t make the U.S. energy “independent” or help clean the air. And yet at a time when Midwesterners are increasingly the swing voters in presidential elections, ethanol is a boondoggle that few candidates will have the courage to spurn in their pursuit of the White House.



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