A new report by the OECD’s Round Table on Sustainable Development, Biofuels: Is the Cure Worse than the Disease? is definitely not bullish on biofuels. Herewith a few highlights.
“The rush to energy crops threatens to cause food shortages and damage to biodiversity with limited benefits.”
- Biofuel production is already raising food prices. Its rapid growth will likely keep food prices “high and rising throughout at least the next decade.”
- Expanding ethanol and biodiesel from 1% of the liquid transport fuel market in 2005 to 11% in 2050 could lead to a “food versus fuel debate.” [Earth to OECD: The debate is already roiling.]
- “When the impacts of soil acidification, fertilizer use, biodiversity loss and toxicity of agricultural pesticides are taken into account, the overall environmental impact of ethanol and biodiesel can very easily exceed those of petrol and mineral dust.”
- “In only a very few countries do biofuels have the potential to make a significant dent in dependence on imported oils.”
- The potential of current ethanol and biodiesel to replace a significant amount of oil “without compromising food prices and the environment is very limited.”
“Second-generation technologies hold promise but depend on technological breakthroughs.”
- It remains to be seen “whether they will become economically viable over the next decade, if ever.”
“The economic outlook for biofuels seems fragile.”
- Biofuels could theoretically achieve a 23% market share by 2050 (11% from conventional and 12% from advanced technologies). “However, it seems unlikely this potential will be realized, as concerns over food prices and environmental degradation caused by first-generation technologies suggest that the potential of conventional technologies is closer to current production levels [i.e., 1%].”
- “Furthermore, commercialization of second-generation technologies is still a (distant) possibility with only several pilot and demonstration plants currently in place.”
“Government policies supporting and protecting domestic production of biofuels are ineffcient and not cost-effective.”
- Realistically, biofuels might displace 13% of petroleum by 2050. That would reduce energy-related CO2 emissions 3% below baseline projections. The cost of obtaining these reductions is very high–”well over $500 per tonne of CO2 equivalent for corn-based ethanol in the United States, for example, with other researched countries not performing much better.




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